Weekly brief · Week of Oct 12, 2026
DDR5 spot pushes to new high while module and contract pricing trail
Updated Oct 19, 2026 00:00 UTC
DDR5 spot pricing continued to lead the DRAM market this week, with the weekly average rising to $60.08, up 2.9% w/w and 9.5% over four weeks. The move matters because the rest of the stack is not keeping pace: DDR5 module pricing was flat at $239.00, and the latest contract data from 2026-09-30 still does not show a broad reset higher. DDR4 spot was effectively unchanged at $48.93, while GDDR6 extended its recent gains to $12.44, up 1.2% w/w. The market remains in a Transition regime for a fourth straight week with medium confidence, reflecting continued spot strength but slower momentum, lagging module pass-through and stale contract confirmation.
Key numbers
| Series | Weekly avg | Week | 4 weeks | 12 weeks | vs high | 12-week trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DDR5 | $60.08 | +2.9% | +9.5% | +19.5% | 0.0% | |
| DDR4 | $48.93 | +0.1% | -2.7% | +5.1% | -6.2% | |
| GDDR6 | $12.44 | +1.2% | +5.1% | +7.1% | -2.7% | |
| DDR5 Module | $239 | 0.0% | +2.3% | +14.4% | -4.4% |
Scorecard
| Regime | Transition: signals are mixed and do not point to a clear cycle phase |
| Confidence | Medium |
| Spot momentum | Spot gains are slowing |
| Module pass-through | Module prices are lagging chip spot |
| Contract reset | No contract reset has been seen |
How spot, module and contract compare
The divergence between DDR5 chips and downstream pricing widened again. Over four weeks, DDR5 chip spot is up 9.5% while DDR5 Module pricing is up 2.3%, meaning only 24% of the chip move has passed through to modules. DDR5 spot now trades at 1.23x DDR4 spot pricing versus 1.09x four weeks ago, showing the premium continuing to expand. Contract pricing still trails spot activity: the latest tracked contract print is 18 days old, with DDR5 8GB SO-DIMM unchanged at $133.00 and the largest contract move limited to +4.2% for DDR4 8GB SO-DIMM.
| Contract item | Price | Change | Print date |
|---|---|---|---|
| DDR5 8GB SO-DIMM | $133 | 0.0% | Sep 30 |
| DDR4 16GB SO-DIMM | $275 | +1.9% | Sep 30 |
| DDR4 8GB SO-DIMM | $148 | +4.2% | Sep 30 |
What changed
- DDR5 spot averaged $60.08, up 2.9% w/w and 9.5% over four weeks; latest price reached $60.60 on 2026-10-16.
- DDR4 spot averaged $48.93, up 0.1% w/w but down 2.7% over four weeks; weekly trading stayed in a narrow $48.89 to $48.99 range.
- GDDR6 spot averaged $12.44, up 1.2% w/w and 5.1% over four weeks, marking a third consecutive weekly increase.
- DDR5 Module pricing was unchanged w/w at $239.00 despite DDR5 chip gains, leaving pass-through at 24% over four weeks.
- The market regime stayed at Transition for a fourth straight week with medium confidence; spot pricing is still rising but momentum is slowing and no contract reset has been seen.
- One trading session was missing this week, with 14 recorded sessions versus 15 expected.
Regime call
Transition (medium confidence), 4th week in this regime
What to watch next
- A confirmed contract reset requires a rise of 10% or more on a tracked SO-DIMM contract item; the latest contract move was +4.2% for DDR4 8GB SO-DIMM.
- Module confirmation would strengthen if DDR5 module pricing closes more of the gap with chip spot; current four-week pass-through is 24% versus a 65% requirement.
- DDR5 spot momentum remains constructive while weekly pricing holds above the recent four-week low of $57.26.
- Watch whether the DDR5-to-DDR4 spot ratio holds near 1.23x after widening from 1.09x four weeks ago.