Weekly brief · Week of Sep 21, 2026
DDR5 spot extends rally as market shifts from Expansion to Transition
Updated Sep 28, 2026 00:00 UTC
DDR5 chip spot prices continued to climb this week, with the weekly average reaching $57.26, up 4.3% w/w and 22.5% over 12 weeks, while DDR4 weakened for a third straight week. The divergence matters because the market regime has now shifted from Expansion to Transition with medium confidence: spot gains are accelerating, but module pricing and contracts are not keeping pace. DDR5 module spot rose 0.8% w/w to $235.53, well behind the 5.9% four-week move in DDR5 chips, and no contract reset has been seen. Contract data is also stale at 27 days old, with the latest tracked SO-DIMM contract changes limited to +2.3% or less as of 2026-08-31. This week's read is based on 4 trading days and 12 sessions versus an expected 5 trading days and 15 sessions.
Key numbers
| Series | Weekly avg | Week | 4 weeks | 12 weeks | vs high | 12-week trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DDR5 | $57.26 | +4.3% | +5.9% | +22.5% | 0.0% | |
| DDR4 | $48.97 | -2.6% | -4.4% | +13.5% | -6.1% | |
| GDDR6 | $11.84 | 0.0% | +1.2% | +2.8% | -7.3% | |
| DDR5 Module | $235.53 | +0.8% | +3.6% | +12.9% | -5.8% |
Scorecard
| Regime | Transition: signals are mixed and do not point to a clear cycle phase |
| Confidence | Medium |
| Spot momentum | Spot gains are accelerating |
| Module pass-through | Module prices are lagging chip spot |
| Contract reset | No contract reset has been seen |
How spot, module and contract compare
The gap between DDR5 and DDR4 pricing widened further this week. DDR5 chips averaged 1.17x DDR4 pricing, up from 1.06x four weeks ago, as DDR5 spot reached its highest weekly average in the 34-week history while DDR4 fell 2.6% w/w to $48.97. Module pricing is still trailing the chip rally: DDR5 modules are up 3.6% over four weeks versus a 5.9% gain in DDR5 chip spot, implying 61% pass-through over that period. Contract pricing remains slower-moving than spot, with the latest available contract prints from 2026-08-31 showing DDR5 8GB SO-DIMM at $133 and DDR4 8GB SO-DIMM at $142 after increases of 2.3% and 2.2% respectively.
| Contract item | Price | Change | Print date |
|---|---|---|---|
| DDR5 8GB SO-DIMM | $133 | +2.3% | Aug 31 |
| DDR4 16GB SO-DIMM | $270 | +1.9% | Aug 31 |
| DDR4 8GB SO-DIMM | $142 | +2.2% | Aug 31 |
What changed
- DDR5 chip spot averaged $57.26, up 4.3% w/w and 5.9% over 4 weeks; latest print was $57.67 on 2026-09-24.
- DDR4 chip spot averaged $48.97, down 2.6% w/w and 4.4% over 4 weeks; latest print was $48.74 on 2026-09-24.
- GDDR6 spot was unchanged w/w at $11.84, up 1.2% over 4 weeks and 2.8% over 12 weeks.
- DDR5 module spot averaged $235.53, up 0.8% w/w and 3.6% over 4 weeks, lagging the move in DDR5 chips.
- The market regime shifted from Expansion to Transition after 6 consecutive weeks in Expansion, with medium confidence.
- Spot momentum improved this week after a prior slowdown, but module pass-through remains below the 65% confirmation level at 61% over 4 weeks.
Regime call
Transition (medium confidence), changed from Expansion
What to watch next
- A confirmed contract reset requires a tracked SO-DIMM contract increase of 10.0% or more; the latest largest move was +2.3% on DDR5 8GB SO-DIMM.
- Watch whether DDR5 module pass-through reaches the required 65% level from the current 61% over 4 weeks.
- Monitor whether DDR5 spot can hold above the recent four-week range low of $54.05 after reaching a weekly high of $57.67.
- Contract data is 27 days old as of 2026-08-31, so the next month-end contract print will be important for confirming whether spot strength is feeding into negotiated pricing.