Weekly brief · Week of Sep 28, 2026
DDR5 spot pushes to new highs while module pricing trails
Updated Oct 05, 2026 00:00 UTC
DDR5 spot pricing continued to lead the DRAM market this week, with the weekly average at $57.89, up 1.1% w/w and up 7.1% over four weeks, reaching the highest weekly average in 35 weeks of data. The widening gap versus DDR4 is becoming more pronounced: DDR5 now trades at 1.19x DDR4 pricing versus 1.04x four weeks ago, while DDR4 spot slipped 0.4% w/w to $48.78 and is now down 6.4% over four weeks. GDDR6 also strengthened, rising 3.5% w/w to $12.26 after holding largely rangebound through prior weeks. The market regime remains Transition for a second straight week with medium confidence, reflecting accelerating spot momentum alongside slower module and contract repricing. Contract data remains relatively fresh at four days old, but current contract moves still lag recent spot gains and the tracked reset threshold has not yet been met.
Key numbers
| Series | Weekly avg | Week | 4 weeks | 12 weeks | vs high | 12-week trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DDR5 | $57.89 | +1.1% | +7.1% | +22.3% | 0.0% | |
| DDR4 | $48.78 | -0.4% | -6.4% | +10.2% | -6.4% | |
| GDDR6 | $12.26 | +3.5% | +4.5% | +6.0% | -4.1% | |
| DDR5 Module | $238.78 | +1.4% | +3.9% | +14.3% | -4.5% |
Scorecard
| Regime | Transition: signals are mixed and do not point to a clear cycle phase |
| Confidence | Medium |
| Spot momentum | Spot gains are accelerating |
| Module pass-through | Module prices are lagging chip spot |
| Contract reset | A contract reset is pending |
How spot, module and contract compare
The clearest divergence remains between DDR5 chip spot and downstream pricing. Over four weeks, DDR5 chip spot is up 7.1% while DDR5 module pricing is up 3.9%, implying 55% pass-through versus the 65% level required to confirm tighter module alignment with chip pricing. Contract pricing continues to move more slowly than spot markets: the latest Sep 30 contract print showed DDR5 8GB SO-DIMM unchanged at $133, while DDR4 contracts moved higher with DDR4 8GB SO-DIMM up 4.2% to $148 and DDR4 16GB SO-DIMM up 1.9% to $275. Spot strength therefore remains concentrated in DDR5 chips rather than fully reflected across modules and contracts.
| Contract item | Price | Change | Print date |
|---|---|---|---|
| DDR5 8GB SO-DIMM | $133 | 0.0% | Sep 30 |
| DDR4 16GB SO-DIMM | $275 | +1.9% | Sep 30 |
| DDR4 8GB SO-DIMM | $148 | +4.2% | Sep 30 |
What changed
- DDR5 chip spot averaged $57.89, up 1.1% w/w and up 22.3% over 12 weeks, extending its winning streak to 4 weeks.
- DDR4 chip spot averaged $48.78, down 0.4% w/w and down 6.4% over four weeks, marking 4 consecutive weekly declines.
- GDDR6 spot averaged $12.26, up 3.5% w/w, with the weekly range at $12.14 to $12.29.
- DDR5 module spot averaged $238.78, up 1.4% w/w and up 14.3% over 12 weeks, but still trailing chip gains.
- DDR5 pricing widened to 1.19x DDR4 pricing versus 1.04x four weeks ago.
- The latest contract data as of 2026-09-30 showed the largest move at +4.2% for DDR4 8GB SO-DIMM contracts.
Regime call
Transition (medium confidence), 2nd week in this regime
What to watch next
- A confirmed contract reset would require a tracked SO-DIMM contract move of 10.0% or more; the latest maximum move was 4.2%.
- Module alignment improves if DDR5 module pricing reaches at least 65% of the pace of DDR5 chip spot moves; the current four-week pass-through is 55%.
- DDR5 momentum remains intact while weekly averages hold above the prior week's $57.26 level.
- Watch whether DDR4 stabilises after four consecutive weekly declines and a four-week drop of 6.4%.