Weekly brief · Week of Nov 2, 2026
DDR5 holds near highs while DDR4 spot extends its slide
Updated Nov 09, 2026 00:00 UTC
DDR5 spot pricing stayed firm near recent highs this week even as momentum slowed, while DDR4 extended its decline for a third straight week. DDR5 chip spot averaged $61.06, down 0.6% w/w but still up 4.5% over four weeks and 16.7% over 12 weeks, leaving it just 0.6% below its 40-week high. DDR4 chip spot averaged $47.81, down 1.0% w/w and 2.2% over four weeks, widening the pricing gap between the two standards. The market remains in a Transition regime for a seventh consecutive week with medium confidence: spot pricing is no longer accelerating, module pricing continues to lag chip moves, and no fresh contract reset has appeared. Contract data is also stale, with the latest SO-DIMM prints still dated Sep 30, 39 days ago.
Key numbers
| Series | Weekly avg | Week | 4 weeks | 12 weeks | vs high | 12-week trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DDR5 | $61.06 | -0.6% | +4.5% | +16.7% | -0.6% | |
| DDR4 | $47.81 | -1.0% | -2.2% | -3.1% | -8.3% | |
| GDDR6 | $12.47 | 0.0% | +1.5% | +6.8% | -2.4% | |
| DDR5 Module | $241.67 | +0.1% | +1.1% | +8.9% | -3.3% |
Scorecard
| Regime | Transition: signals are mixed and do not point to a clear cycle phase |
| Confidence | Medium |
| Spot momentum | Spot gains are slowing |
| Module pass-through | Module prices are lagging chip spot |
| Contract reset | No contract reset has been seen |
How spot, module and contract compare
The clearest divergence remains between DDR5 chips and downstream pricing. DDR5 chip spot is up 4.5% over four weeks, but DDR5 module pricing is up only 1.1% over the same period, implying just 25% pass-through versus the 65% level required for stronger confirmation. DDR5 chips now trade at 1.28x DDR4 pricing, up from 1.20x four weeks ago as DDR4 weakens and DDR5 holds near peak levels. Contract pricing continues to lag spot moves: the latest monthly contract update showed DDR4 8GB SO-DIMM up 4.2% and DDR4 16GB SO-DIMM up 1.9%, while DDR5 8GB SO-DIMM was unchanged at $133.
| Contract item | Price | Change | Print date |
|---|---|---|---|
| DDR5 8GB SO-DIMM | $133 | 0.0% | Sep 30 |
| DDR4 16GB SO-DIMM | $275 | +1.9% | Sep 30 |
| DDR4 8GB SO-DIMM | $148 | +4.2% | Sep 30 |
News signals
-
DRAM ETF: Why It’s Falling, and Outflows Are Rising Despite Strong Micron, SanDisk and Samsung Earnings
Price inflation: Signals upward pricing pressure in memory markets.
-
Solidigm eyes US NAND fab as funding questions linger
AI demand: Suggests demand pull from AI workloads that can tighten supply.Structural shift: Points to longer-term changes in supply structure or policy risk.
-
Counterpoint: global DRAM revenue grows by 369% in Q3
Price inflation: Signals upward pricing pressure in memory markets.AI demand: Suggests demand pull from AI workloads that can tighten supply.
-
NAND prices face pressure as end demand freezes in 4Q26
Price inflation: Signals upward pricing pressure in memory markets.AI demand: Suggests demand pull from AI workloads that can tighten supply.
What changed
- DDR5 chip spot averaged $61.06, down 0.6% w/w; latest price was $60.17 on Nov 6.
- DDR4 chip spot averaged $47.81, down 1.0% w/w and down for a third straight week; latest price was $47.08.
- GDDR6 spot was unchanged at $12.47 w/w, holding within a narrow $12.44 to $12.50 four-week range.
- DDR5 module spot averaged $241.67, up 0.1% w/w and up 1.1% over four weeks.
- DDR5 pricing remains near cycle highs at 0.6% below its 40-week peak, while DDR4 sits 8.3% below its own high.
- News flow included "DRAM ETF: Why It’s Falling, and Outflows Are Rising Despite Strong Micron, SanDisk and Samsung Earnings" (benzinga, Nov 7).
Regime call
Transition (medium confidence), 7th week in this regime
What to watch next
- A contract reset still requires a tracked SO-DIMM contract move of 10.0% or more; the largest latest move was 4.2% on DDR4 8GB SO-DIMM.
- Module confirmation would strengthen if DDR5 module pricing closes more of the gap with chip spot; current four-week pass-through is 25% versus the 65% threshold.
- DDR5 spot remains rangebound near recent highs, with the latest four-week range at $60.08 to $61.42.
- Watch for fresher contract data: current contract pricing is still based on Sep 30 prints, now 39 days old.