Weekly brief · Week of Nov 9, 2026
DDR4 selloff deepens as DRAM market shifts into correction
Updated Nov 15, 2026 03:02 UTC
DDR4 spot weakness intensified this week, with DDR4 chip pricing averaging $46.51, down 2.7% w/w and extending its losing streak to four weeks. DDR5 spot also softened to $60.21, down 1.4% w/w, while GDDR6 held broadly flat at $12.51, up 0.3% w/w. The market regime shifted from Transition to Correction for the first time in this cycle, although confidence remains low because module pricing is still holding firmer than chip spot and no fresh contract reset has appeared yet. The move matters because spot declines are now accelerating after several weeks of slower gains, while contract data remains stale at 46 days old and may not yet reflect current spot direction.
Key numbers
| Series | Weekly avg | Week | 4 weeks | 12 weeks | vs high | 12-week trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DDR5 | $60.21 | -1.4% | +0.2% | +13.0% | -2.0% | |
| DDR4 | $46.51 | -2.7% | -4.9% | -8.1% | -10.8% | |
| GDDR6 | $12.51 | +0.3% | +0.6% | +6.9% | -2.1% | |
| DDR5 Module | $243.22 | +0.6% | +1.8% | +8.2% | -2.7% |
Scorecard
| Regime | Correction: spot prices are falling |
| Confidence | Low |
| Spot momentum | Spot declines are accelerating |
| Module pass-through | Module prices are lagging chip spot |
| Contract reset | No contract reset has been seen |
How spot, module and contract compare
The gap between DDR5 and DDR4 spot pricing widened further, with DDR5 trading at 1.29x DDR4 versus 1.23x four weeks ago as DDR4 continues to underperform. DDR5 chip spot is still up 13.0% over 12 weeks and sits just 2.0% below its high, but the near-term trend has weakened with prices now down for two straight weeks. Module pricing remains notably firmer than chip spot: DDR5 Module averaged $243.22, up 0.6% w/w and 1.8% over four weeks even as DDR5 chip spot was nearly flat over the same period. Contract pricing continues to lag spot conditions, with the latest SO-DIMM contract data still dated Sep 30 and showing increases of 1.9% and 4.2% on tracked DDR4 items while spot pricing has since deteriorated.
| Contract item | Price | Change | Print date |
|---|---|---|---|
| DDR5 8GB SO-DIMM | $133 | 0.0% | Sep 30 |
| DDR4 16GB SO-DIMM | $275 | +1.9% | Sep 30 |
| DDR4 8GB SO-DIMM | $148 | +4.2% | Sep 30 |
News signals
-
Samsung moves up HBM packaging plant opening to June 2028
AI demand: Suggests demand pull from AI workloads that can tighten supply.
-
China's Planned Fab Expansion May Weigh on DRAM Contract Prices
Price inflation: Signals upward pricing pressure in memory markets.Structural shift: Points to longer-term changes in supply structure or policy risk.
-
Nvidia After Huang: The Next GPU Investment Wave Will Shape Korea’s HBM Growth
AI demand: Suggests demand pull from AI workloads that can tighten supply.
-
AMD targets lower DRAM use with AI-predictive memory management
Price inflation: Signals upward pricing pressure in memory markets.AI demand: Suggests demand pull from AI workloads that can tighten supply.Structural shift: Points to longer-term changes in supply structure or policy risk.
What changed
- DDR4 chip spot averaged $46.51, down 2.7% w/w and 4.9% over four weeks; latest daily print was $46.23.
- DDR5 chip spot averaged $60.21, down 1.4% w/w but still up 13.0% over 12 weeks.
- GDDR6 spot averaged $12.51, up 0.3% w/w and trading near its recent highs.
- DDR5 Module pricing averaged $243.22, up 0.6% w/w despite softer DDR5 chip pricing.
- Market regime shifted from Transition to Correction this week, with spot declines now accelerating.
- Contract data is stale: the latest tracked SO-DIMM contract print remains Sep 30, 46 days old.
- News: "China's Planned Fab Expansion May Weigh on DRAM Contract Prices" (econotimes, Nov 14).
Regime call
Correction (low confidence), changed from Transition
What to watch next
- A confirmed contract reset still requires a tracked SO-DIMM contract move of 10.0% or more; the latest largest move was 4.2% on DDR4 8GB SO-DIMM.
- Watch whether DDR5 spot can hold within its recent four-week range of $60.21 to $61.42 after two consecutive weekly declines.
- Module pass-through remains incomplete while module pricing fails to keep within 65% of chip spot's pace.
- Fresh monthly contract data is still absent; the next published reset will be important after 46 days without an update.